Bad Fold?

Cye99

How bad was this fold.  Have no read on Gavark as he just sat down at the table.

$1/$2 Hold'em - Tuesday, May 31, 20:12:19 EDT 2005
Table Dash n cash (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: QuadLazer ( $110.73 )
Seat 7: Alderete ( $120 )
Seat 2: Cye99 ( $44 )
Seat 3: cougar7883 ( $29.5 )
Seat 4: slagfest4 ( $38 )
Seat 5: Turn_Prophet ( $216.07 )
Seat 10: dander999 ( $47.5 )
Seat 8: Gavark ( $45.5 )
Seat 6: PhillipFry ( $8.5 )
Seat 9: fishenbill ( $42.5 )
cougar7883 posts small blind [$0.5].
slagfest4 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Cye99 [  Jd Js ]
Turn_Prophet folds.
PhillipFry folds.
Alderete folds.
Gavark calls [$1].
fishenbill folds.
dander999 folds.
Cye99 raises [$2].
cougar7883 calls [$1.5].
slagfest4 folds.
Gavark calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2c, Tc, 8d ]
cougar7883 checks.
Gavark checks.
Cye99 bets [$1].
cougar7883 calls [$1].
Gavark raises [$2].
Cye99 raises [$2].
cougar7883 calls [$2].
Gavark calls [$1].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
cougar7883 checks.
Gavark checks.
Cye99 bets [$2].
cougar7883 calls [$2].
Gavark calls [$2].
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
cougar7883 checks.
Gavark bets [$2].
Cye99 folds.
cougar7883 calls [$2].

I'll give the results later.

thanks for any help

Unknown

If I am correct, there is $24 in the pot when it's your decision, and $2 to you to call.  So, if you think there's even an 8% chance that your hand will be good, it's a call.

But, you have to worry about the player behind you raising after you call.  Since he checked the river, though, that's probably not going to happen.  If cougar has a big club, he'd go ahead and bet into the scary board, fearing it would be checked around.

Bottom line: I'd call.  The math tells me to call.  I'd probably lose, but if I lose, I only lose $2.  If I win, I win a big pot.

It's been said that if you're going to make a big laydown, it's best to make it preflop instead of to one single bet on the river.  That's not to say you should fold your jacks preflop (obviously) but it's something to keep in mind.

ScottyZ

How about raising on the river?

ScottyZ

Yorkpoker

And?

What happened?

BBC Z

Isn't this the classic situation of 'It's profitable to call headup, but becomes a loss when someone behind you is yet to act?"

I think I'd land up calling the river because you have to pry sets out of my cold dead hand in LL HE.

My justification is that Gavark check raised the flop which tends to mean he doesn't like that flush draw out there, and all cougar has done is call bets, so I'm not too scared of him. I can see > 8% of the time the Gavark flips top pair and cougar flips 2nd pair.

Big E

I think it was a mistake to fold at this point, I think as everyone has stated with trips and what you had in the pot it's a good idea to call, cougar behind you is just calling everything I would not have been afraid of him raising. I think BBC Z is accurate with his read and I'd probably put Gavark on maybe A10 or K10 but I have a long way to go on reading people? how did it turn out?

QueenNine

I think it's a bad fold as well. I would definitely call for only $2, even if the guy behind raises, it's only another $2. Worth the risk IMO.

BBC Z

MDSGuy wrote:

I think it's a bad fold as well. I would definitely call for only $2, even if the guy behind raises, it's only another $2. Worth the risk IMO.

Those kinds of thoughts are what seperate winning players from losing players.

If any of your poker choice justifications end with "It's just another $X', it's going to be tough to be a winning player longterm.

twosnaces

That's a tough decision to make with someone acting after you. I had a similar decision to make but two people were acting before me and after the bet and the raise I threw away my trip Qs.

Cye99

The results are:

Gavark had A :d: 8 :h: for a pair of 8's
and Cougar had Q :h: J :d: for a pair of J's

No flush, man was I pissed.

Thanks for all your responses.

At the time I felt there was no way i could be good, but as some of you have said the pot was
of a size that I would need to be good only a small percentage of the time.

mads777

I can see > 8% of the time the Gavark flips top pair and cougar flips 2nd pair.

You could have done better BBC Z! 

Good analysis!

and to Cye99, hope you've added them to your buddy list

QueenNine

BBC Z wrote:

MDSGuy wrote:

I think it's a bad fold as well. I would definitely call for only $2, even if the guy behind raises, it's only another $2. Worth the risk IMO.

Those kinds of thoughts are what seperate winning players from losing players.

If any of your poker choice justifications end with "It's just another $X', it's going to be tough to be a winning player longterm.

Based on the size of the pot, another $2.00 is not that big a deal. Especially when you are holding a set against a "possible" flush. In this situation I would make that call. In another situation (higher bet) maybe I don't.

BBC Z

MDSGuy wrote:

BBC Z wrote:

MDSGuy wrote:

I think it's a bad fold as well. I would definitely call for only $2, even if the guy behind raises, it's only another $2. Worth the risk IMO.

Those kinds of thoughts are what seperate winning players from losing players.

If any of your poker choice justifications end with "It's just another $X', it's going to be tough to be a winning player longterm.

Based on the size of the pot, another $2.00 is not that big a deal. Especially when you are holding a set against a "possible" flush. In this situation I would make that call. In another situation (higher bet) maybe I don't.

Right. The statement is fine because now you are considering the size of the pot. My point was that if you ONLY use that line as a reason for an action, you won't be a winner.