fifty50 SNG bubble in the CO w/ 55
just wanted to hear some opinions on this hand. i'm in the CO with 55 and am currently sitting in 2nd place with a decent stack of around 15BBs before the hand is dealt. one more elimination ends the tournament (and a reminder that the more chips i end with the more money i win).
there are two very short stacks of 175 and 575 and a third at 900 with blinds at 125-250-30 ante. also, villain in BB has the big stack (the only stack that can bust me) and has been betting/raising almost every hand and punishing the passive shorter stacks.
since this was a fifty50 i thought differently than a normal SNG and folded. what do you guys think of this play?
PokerStars Tournament $6.68+$0.32 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (125/250)
Table '1078850756 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: BUTTON (175 in chips)
Seat 3: SB (900 in chips)
Seat 5: BB (5570 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG (3850 in chips)
Seat 8: HJ (575 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO (3930 in chips)
BUTTON: posts the ante 30
SB: posts the ante 30
BB: posts the ante 30
UTG: posts the ante 30
HJ: posts the ante 30
HERO: posts the ante 30
SB: posts small blind 125
BB: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5c 5h]
UTG: folds
HJ: folds
HERO: folds
there are two very short stacks of 175 and 575 and a third at 900 with blinds at 125-250-30 ante. also, villain in BB has the big stack (the only stack that can bust me) and has been betting/raising almost every hand and punishing the passive shorter stacks.
since this was a fifty50 i thought differently than a normal SNG and folded. what do you guys think of this play?
PokerStars Tournament $6.68+$0.32 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (125/250)
Table '1078850756 1' 10-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: BUTTON (175 in chips)
Seat 3: SB (900 in chips)
Seat 5: BB (5570 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG (3850 in chips)
Seat 8: HJ (575 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO (3930 in chips)
BUTTON: posts the ante 30
SB: posts the ante 30
BB: posts the ante 30
UTG: posts the ante 30
HJ: posts the ante 30
HERO: posts the ante 30
SB: posts small blind 125
BB: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [5c 5h]
UTG: folds
HJ: folds
HERO: folds
Comments
Could make an argument for min raise and fold to reraise but it seems like an unncessesary risk.
if this was a double or nothing, i'd agree with you in folding to the money. however, since a bigger stack makes more money i disagree with this strategy in general (obviously, in some cases you should be folding in that manner though depending).
in fact, it's this kind of thinking from my opponents that makes me like these fifty50s. if i'm a big stack on the bubble, i like to ignore the small stacks and pick on any of the medium stacks who are just choosing to sit back until the money. they keep folding and i get more chips while short stacks just struggle to hold on.
I bet you could figure it out if you tried
yeah, i don't know how to do the ICM with the different payouts in these SNGs.
disclaimer: the math is pretty crude. think its close enough to make sense:
which parts?
thanks for running the numbers. i figured it was pretty close.
i'm assuming you are assuming that others will be playing tight and folding because they are waiting for crippled stacks to lose.
are you min raising with the plan to fold to a BB reraise?
Think about the reasons you folded this hand.
You can safely assume that the BB is equally minded.
I would suggest that BB calling range is far less than what's been provided above.
I'm shoving.
thanks for the input wetts.
ding! ding! ^this
but i don't think shoving is optimal. probably not 'wrong' enough to make a huge difference, though.
i know you and trigs are among a few people here looking to learn and share (plus you do good gifs and i enjoy poking trigs) so i took a brief amount of time to dig into this and i did the mathz, too.
no guesswork needed, this is nash shit! unfortunately nash only looks at shove/fold decisions. it would be nice to expand this to look at other options but that would take more work, not sure how much.
as CO, you should be shoving almost 30% of your hands if first to enter. even so, BU is correct to call your shove with about 25% of his hands, SB should call with QQ+and BB with about 16%. If you aren't called, your ev goes up by 2.5-3% so you decide if you think it is worth the slight risk of extreme loss. I guess if the BB is playing a bit laggy, you might want to tighten up your range.
we really should get that study group going for people who want to talk poker and not a lot of extra garbage. i'm guessing with the fifty50 games, there are a lot of exploitable players. i played a bunch a while back and noticed a lot of non-optimal play before i got distracted with those shiny spin n goes and life in general.
I think you are correct on that part. My #'s above were based on 80% fold to shove vs 20% call - which is for sure way too high.
...Actually not sure how I missed that, as when I gave villain a calling range (for the equity when called) I included only AA KK QQ AKs (could argue that QQ/AKs are questionable, but left them in as he does have more chips than we do)
So I think we're moving towards a consensus that rasing > folding. What are the benefits of shoving vs min raising (and vs, say, 3x-ing??)
I still have the excel file I used for that so I'll plug in some better numbers and see if we can make shoving look better.
And lastly, what else did I miss?
i need to get back to work, but I love this. Will be back on later to look into closer.
some players do small raise near the bubble to entice a shove from an aggro. some do it so they can get away from it if they face aggression.
it seems like a big game of chicken sometimes and it is up to you and the BB to sort it out.
i've always felt 2x vs a loose big stack in the bb wasn't enough to get a fold. especially if he has shown no inclination to ever fold. chances are good you will face a decision after the flop.
anything above 4x almost commits you to the hand so you're better off shoving. maybe 2.5-3x is optimal? and if he shoves, do you snap fold?
from his perspective, he doesn't want to call off a lot of chips with a garbage hand. he might shove if he is almost certain you'll fold. QQ is even a tough call for you in that spot. you really need to know your opponent here.
if he calls, do you do a continuation bet? do you fold against aggression?
lots of questions follow a decision to make a small raise with a good but not a monster hand. sometimes simple is better
the nice thing about the shove is it takes any tough decisions down the road out of your hands. more risky. but easy. wetts probably has it right. he is a pretty smart guy.
Thats about it.
The prob with 2/3 xing is that if we happen to run into a competent BB we are very easily exploited, and our calling range becomes even smaller than the villains if we shove!
As an example, with the stacks the way they are (BB>hero, lots of cripples) Im shoving almost my entire range in the BB vs. button min raise. Vekked once posted here somewhere coining the phrase rape equity. BB has lots of it here if we min raise.
Shoving here is the least exploitable avenue, and our hand is far too strong to fold.
Lets put some hands into this range so i can try to fix my math.
Assuming we shove, BB calls with what hands?
That is a great way to put it. Looking at each play in terms of exploitability makes a ton of sense and is something I need to better work into my thought process.
Fucking rape equity LOL
top 30% would look like this, so you are pretty much correct that 55 is the bottom.
I would think it makes sense to add the rest of the aces and maybe even the rest of the pairs, instead of (or on top of) hands like T9o, Q7s, K5s - making it look like this: