what are the odds?

I was playing in my local home game Saturday night with 6 other friends ... and this happened:

I was dealt QQ - raised and everyone folded around to the player on my left who called - flop came JJJ - I bet, and the player to my left pushed all in - I tanked for a minute then called - he turned over AJ.

This was not a problem for me - just a cooler - but out of curiousity I've been trying to calculate the probability of this scenario .. What are the odds of Queens running into AJ with a flop of JJJ?!

Any math guys out there?

Comments

  • DataMnDataMn Full PFC Member
    The way the question is formed it is hard to say. It would depend on the range that the OP would call your raise with. When JJJ is on the board there is only 4 ways for the OP to have AJ, but is there a possibility of them having KJ (another 4 ways), QJ (2 ways) or JT (4 ways)? What is the rest of their calling range?

    To get clearer math, you could calculate what the odds are of the flop coming up JJJ when QQ is all in against AJ - that is 17,295 to 1.
  • jaytay73jaytay73 Junior Member
    Thanks, that's how I should have worded it. So how did you come up with that number?
  • DataMnDataMn Full PFC Member
    3 Jacks in the deck, and 48 cards remaining to be seen

    3 * 2 * 1 / 48 / 47 / 46
  • DataMnDataMn Full PFC Member
    To put things into a more realistic frame, and to get to the heart of the original question - If OP would call with any 2 cards in the deck, then the chance of OP having a Jack when the board is JJJ is 45 to 2 = 4.26%. The percentage of times that OP would have a Jack is probably higher in this situation since OP would most likely have a Jack in their hand as opposed to a baby card (7 or below).

    Calculation: 47 cards remain, one of which is a Jack.

    1 (Jack) * 46 (other cards) / 47 / 46 * 2 (The Jack could either be the first card or the second card).
  • 800OVER800OVER Full PFC Member
    GTA Poker wrote: »
    50:50

    I think you mean 52:52
  • getem76getem76 Full PFC Member
    What are the odds? With datamn the answer is not enough!

    As per having QQ in this spot, this is kinda the spot you want to be in all night long.
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