i'm bored: prop bet feeler
there is no guarantee that i will do this!
i was talking to a friend about this and i thought i'd post here for some comments. if i do this, i will probably see if anyone wants any action (and maybe we can make things a bit more fun and exciting around here).
okay, here's the bet:
every day (meaning between midnight and 11:59pm), for ten straight days, i must play at least 500 hands of zoom omaha $0.02-$0.05 (i can play as much as i want, but i must play a minimum of 500 hands per day).
i must show a profit every day even it is just one cent. (note: i don't have to profit every session - i.e. i can take a break when i'm down to relax and grab some lunch, for example, but i must finish the day in the black.)
if i fail to show a profit on any single day - i lose. if i fail to play 500 hands in a day - i lose.
if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.
so what do you guys think?
i'm interested in what people think is a fair line in this bet. i'm under the impression that i should be laid some odds for this. opinions? interest?
(again, no guarantees that i am doing this for sure - just throwing some ideas around. if anyone has any interesting prop bet ideas i'd be willing to listen as well.)
i was talking to a friend about this and i thought i'd post here for some comments. if i do this, i will probably see if anyone wants any action (and maybe we can make things a bit more fun and exciting around here).
okay, here's the bet:
every day (meaning between midnight and 11:59pm), for ten straight days, i must play at least 500 hands of zoom omaha $0.02-$0.05 (i can play as much as i want, but i must play a minimum of 500 hands per day).
i must show a profit every day even it is just one cent. (note: i don't have to profit every session - i.e. i can take a break when i'm down to relax and grab some lunch, for example, but i must finish the day in the black.)
if i fail to show a profit on any single day - i lose. if i fail to play 500 hands in a day - i lose.
if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.
so what do you guys think?
i'm interested in what people think is a fair line in this bet. i'm under the impression that i should be laid some odds for this. opinions? interest?
(again, no guarantees that i am doing this for sure - just throwing some ideas around. if anyone has any interesting prop bet ideas i'd be willing to listen as well.)
Comments
it'll definitely be difficult for sure as i'm pretty much playing against variance. however i really feel like i could do it as long as i had the time (i.e. if i need to i could play 2000 hands in a day just to fight to get back to even if necessary).
i probably wouldn't be able to do this while i'm working though as i wouldn't have the time i think. i'm thinking march break maybe. nothing is certain yet obviously.
max buy-in is $5.
i probably average under 500 hands per day. i don't know for sure but my guess is probably between 300-400 hands per day/session during the week. sometimes on the weekends i'll hit 1000+ in a day with my highest being maybe 2200ish.
also depends on how many tables i play. i usually play only one but sometimes i'll two table (any more than that on zoom just gets crazy for me). for this bet i'd be two tabling every time most likely.
i may be wrong (i'm not at home to check the averages) but on average you're probably seeing 60+ hands an hour (probably even more) on zoom. basically, i'd be playing at least 3 hours a day i think to hit 500 hands.
EDIT: okay, i was a bit off lol. just jumped on pokerstars and the average hands per hour currently are >150. i play a lot on my phone which doesn't show all the stats so i wasn't sure about them. so, most likely i can pump out 500 hands on two tables in 2 hours-ish.
FU Trigs.
yes, i can reload whenever (i usually just have it set to always top up to 100BBs), but every time i reload or top up, i'd still have to win all that back in the one day to show a profit.
i'd also be allowed to check/fold hands just to keep my profit. for example, there's 50 hands left and i'm up enough that i can pay the blinds and fold everything else and still finish with a profit for the day. hence, i'm not "forced" to play any hands.
if i show a profit every day and play at least 500 hands a day for ten straight days - i win.
I will do 10.00 at 4:1
Let me know ^-^
yeah, i was thinking more around 10-1 maybe. my friend is pretty much 100% sure that i can't do this, and to be honest, i think i can get much better odds from him
it's not like i have to just show a profit after a minimum of 5000 hands, but i have to show a profit all the way through! definitely tough i'd think.
I am currently not working and not collecting EI so I will stick to my 4:1 ^-^
I'd be willing to bet my house at 4-1. Let me know!!
I will do 10.00 at 4:1
Although if Wetts is looking at 20:1, you may go with him if you are willing to lose your house. ^-^
Start a new thread.
Log every session and re-buy for each day for ten straight days and we will see what happens. it will be interesting to read your stats.
Prophet 22
i really just played this out for "practice" i guess. took me an extra 84 hands before this one saved my night:
PokerStars Zoom Omaha Pot Limit ($0.02/$0.05)
Table 'Lynx' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dummmb ($15.18 in chips)
Seat 2: beibe90 ($16.79 in chips)
Seat 3: m_dolens ($11.10 in chips)
Seat 4: elad12345678 ($5.95 in chips)
Seat 5: Firstgames ($16.55 in chips)
Seat 6: keksas88 ($31.56 in chips)
beibe90: posts small blind $0.02
m_dolens: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to m_dolens [9d Jh Tc Qs]
elad12345678: folds
Firstgames: folds
keksas88: folds
dummmb: calls $0.05
beibe90: folds
m_dolens: raises $0.12 to $0.17
dummmb: calls $0.12
*** FLOP *** [Kc Td 2d]
m_dolens: bets $0.30
dummmb: calls $0.30
*** TURN *** [Kc Td 2d] [Th]
m_dolens: bets $0.78
dummmb: calls $0.78
*** RIVER *** [Kc Td 2d Th] [Jc]
m_dolens: bets $2.04
dummmb: raises $6.50 to $8.54
m_dolens: calls $6.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dummmb: shows [Ad Ah Qh 6h] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
m_dolens: shows [9d Jh Tc Qs] (a full house, Tens full of Jacks)
m_dolens collected $18.84 from pot
like i said, it was a rough night, so stats obviously aren't the greatest. (also, my tracker doesn't accept zoom so this is just the stats from the table.)
584 hands
$3.81 profit
0.7 BBs/100
Saw Flop 19%
Went to Showdown 53%
Won w/o Showdown 74
I think the odds at are pretty good for you to win this. Especially if you take the "Diggstown" approach to this prop bet.
If Al or Pinhead want to show us what the odds should be, that would be interesting.
To be clear on doing this, it would be a .02 - 05 cent game only for ten straight days. No ability to move up. Correct?
I would say 10 to 1 or more would be realistic if say you had to play min 500 hands and maximum 2000.
i'll grant you the check/folding to a profit, but i don't know if i agree with the "continuing to play until you show a profit" necessarily as a positive for me because if i'm tilting/just losing, playing more hands isn't simply a guaranteed to help my cause. but i get your point.
i may consider agreeing to a cap number of hands per day maybe. i might be okay with 2000-2500 cap perhaps.
*as of now, there is no maximum amount of hands, but i am considering agreeing to maybe a 2000-2500 hands per day max (mostly because if i'm really still down after that many hands and hours of playing, i'd most likely just give up and/or run out of time to play anyway).
**i'm wondering if i could include some extra days. for example, i have two full weeks (14 days) to complete the ten days of playing. i might even be okay with a couple "free" days that i can take a day off just in case. i just want to try to avoid me losing this bet because i have too much work one day, or some real life crap happens and i just don't have time to play the 500 hands. i feel that this bet is about beating variance compared to beating tilt, so i don't think that a day off would change the deal. even if i'm doing this over the march break, i only get 9 days off work. summer would be fine though, but that's a long ways away. i don't think that taking a day off break would really affect my variance or anything like that. i'd still have to show a profit for ten straight sessions in the same manner even though it wouldn't be ten straight days of playing. if this one is a deal breaker, then idk, i might have to wait until the summer to do this or we'd have to discuss some alternative maybe.
i was also curious as to the following: let's say that i complete the 500 hands with a profit in one day, but i still have time to play and would like to continue playing. am i able to submit my 500 hands for this competition and consider the stipulations fulfilled yet continue to play separately from this competition? i mean, i already completed the challenge as it was laid out, but let's say then after being officially done i keep playing and tilt money off after the fact. would this be allowed? i'd be a little annoyed that i wasn't able to play anymore just because of this bet. obviously, the first 500 or whatever hands would necessarily have to be for this challenge, but afterwards would be separate. if you were really picky, i guess i could easily include a stipulation that only hands on stars count towards this bet and then i could go play on tilt instead, but that's also just annoying for me.
i think that's it. hope i'm not missing anything.
btw, i will not get a chance to play/practice another 500 block tonight, but i will most likely play saturday and sunday and i'll post my stats for those as well probably.
currently, my friend and i are still in discussion over this bet. right now we're thinking 15-1 odds (down from 20-1 because he's willing to give me a couple days off for any possible real life crap or what have you).
but like you mentioned, a cap on the number of hands per day would change your mind?
EDIT: i mean, if i'm really hitting 2000-ish hands in a day to try to get back to even, that's over 6.5 hours of two tabling (at 150 hands per hour). i've literally only broke the 2000 hands in one day mark once so it's not like i'm an expert at grinding for hours on end. again, i want to think about this, but i may be willing to accept a 2000 or 2500 hand cap per day.
And..I'll lay odds
Sorry for the thread steal:)
But can you do it at .02 - .05 per hand?
Part of the challenge is the grind at the lowest stakes possible. I liken it to the Chinese water torture is a process in which water is slowly dripped onto a person's forehead, allegedly driving the restrained victim insane. Think about the amount of time you are going to spend to win a prob bet.
I am giving 4:1 at a make 10.00. So far no takers. Part of the reason someone wants 15 or 20:1 is because they believe the prob bet will be the driving force to allow them to grind through 10 days in a row.
lol it's all good. obviously if i think a player of my caliber can complete this challenge, i'd definitely agree that someone with your omaha knowledge would find this easy (or at least easier).
like prophet said though, i think your biggest challenge would be getting motivated to play 5000+ hands of cheap and pointless $0.02-$0.05 lol.
i've only been taking omaha seriously for a few months (less than a year). i'm just a low limit rec player who doesn't put in enough playing time (mostly because i don't have the time). when i'm in the mood i'll read some strategy and study a bit, but i really just play for fun. i'm no couch mover.
when i started this thread, i was pretty much expecting to be called cocky, arrogant, or over-confident by at least someone for sure. i mean, i'm no omaha expert to say the least. i am not joking when i say that i'm surprised and flattered that the best offer i've gotten is 4-1.
btw, is there a hidden challenge against me in there GTA?
i was thinking more about this, and i think this is the issue i'm having with it.
there is an implicit hand limit built into this challenge already. it comes from the 24 hour block time limit in that i can only play as many hands as i can within those 24 hours. yes, i understand that that can be a crap ton of hands, but i really wasn't going to be getting up at 12:01am and grinding for 24 hours. i was pretty much going to play my regular schedule with maybe an extra hour or two on average per day when needed. obviously it could be longer if i was losing.
but i agree that that could be an issue as i technically could play thousands and thousands of more hands in a day to try and get back to even if need be. so, i understand that this implicit hand limit may be too high in your opinion.
however, if there is going to be a cap on the number of hands that i can play in a session, i don't see the point in having the 24 hour block time limits. if i can only play so many hands until i'm cut off, it shouldn't matter if i start late and go past midnight, for example. it also shouldn't matter if i play my 500 hands with a profit, sit out and cash out, buy back in for 100BBs and play my next set of 500 hands. why would i just have to sit out and wait for tomorrow if i'm only limited by the hand cap and not the time limit (which was pretty much functioning as the hand cap)?
so if this were the case, i'd venture to suggest that it would be even more beneficial for me as i could possibly hit a heater and play 4 or 5 sets of 500 hands in a day and clean up. it would definitely be possible for me to finish 10 sets of 500 hands over a weekend when there are more fish on the tables, for example.
idk...
lol, honestly, i will do this purely for the fun and challenge of it even with zero action on the side. i just figured it'd be a little more fun with a wager.
so do we have a bet?